"Περίεργα" νούμερα στην δημοσκόπηση του Φιλελεύθερου 16/9/2012‏

 

Σχόλιο

Η δημοσκόπηση του Φιλελεύθερου της Κυριακής (16/09/2012) φαίνεται να έχει κάποια λάθη που καθιστούν τα νούμερα πραγματικά περίεργα.

Η δημοσκόπηση στηρίζεται σε ποσοστά: ΔΗΣΥ 31%, ΑΚΕΛ 19%, ΔΗΚΟ 8%, ΕΔΕΚ 4.5%. Ο Σταύρος Μαλάς παίρνει 3% πιο πάνω από το ΑΚΕΛ, τη στιγμή που όλα δείχνουν πως το ΑΚΕΛ έχει χάσει την εκλογική του δύναμη! Πως γίνεται μετά την διακυβέρνηση Χριστόφια να αυξάνει η δύναμη του ΑΚΕΛ πάνω κατά 13%;; Αν είναι δυνατόν! Ούτε ο πιο δημοφιλής του ΑΚΕΛ (π.χ. Κατσουρίδης) δεν θα πετύγχαινε τέτοια αύξηση των ποσοστών του ΑΚΕΛ κάτω από τις σημερινές συνθήκες!


Με μείωση των ποσοστών του ΔΗΚΟ και της ΕΔΕΚ και εξαφάνιση ΕΥΡΩΚΟ-Οικολόγων η δημοσκόπηση αφαιρεί από τον Γιώργο Λιλλήκα τουλάχιστον 8-9%.

Περίεργα νούμερα, κάτι δεν πάει καλά και πρέπει να εξεταστεί ξανά η εγκυρότητα της εν λόγω δημοσκόπησης...

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ΣΧΕΤΙΚΗ ΣΥΖΗΤΗΣΗ:

Αναφορά της αγγλόφωνης Cyprus Mail στην δημοσκόπηση του Φιλελεύθερου:

Anastasiades leads first polls

PRESIDENTIAL candidates should prepare for a two-round battle in February, if an opinion poll published on Sunday is anything to go by.

According to the RAI Consultants poll, main opposition DISY’s leader – candidate Nicos Anastasiades – is favourite to come out tops in both rounds, in all possible scenarios.

The majority of the 1,008 people asked islandwide said they would vote for Anastasiades (37.2 per cent). Lagging behind was ruling AKEL’s candidate Stavros Malas with 21.9 per cent and then EDEK-backed candidate George Lillikas with 14.2 per cent. Just 1.5 per cent said they would vote for independent candidate Andri Makaria Stylianou.

Over eight per cent of those asked said they would abstain, 7.4 per cent said they would cast a blank vote and 9.2 per cent didn’t reply.

In the event of a second round, the poll looked at two scenarios – both of which gave the lead to Anastasiades.

In the first scenario – the DISY leader against Lillikas – 43.2 per cent of those asked said they would vote Anastasiades, while 25.1 per cent said Lillikas.

Almost 14 per cent of those asked said they would vote blank; 10.5 per cent said they would abstain and 7.6 per cent didn’t answer.

In the second scenario, Anastasiades secured 46.3 per cent, over AKEL’s Malas’ 27.3 per cent. There were fewer abstentions than the first scenario (9.0 per cent), as well as blank votes (11.6 per cent), while 5.8 per cent didn’t respond.

AKEL people appear to be lacking confidence in their party’s proposed candidate, with just 68 per cent of those who supported the party in the last elections saying they would vote for Malas. In contrast, 87 per cent of DISY supporters confirmed they would vote Anastasiades. In fact, while no one from DISY voiced support towards Malas, 5.5 per cent of AKEL supporters said they would vote Anastasiades and 6.3 per cent said Lillikas.

Lillikas may only have the support of opposition EDEK, but despite strong indications of a partnership between DISY and DIKO, the latter’s voters seem to be more in favour of Lillikas. According to the poll, 40.6 per cent of those asked said they would vote Lillikas, as opposed to 24.5 per cent who said Anastasiades.

What’s certain is that Malas isn’t favoured by the two smaller parties (DIKO and EDEK), with just 7.2 per cent of DIKO voters and 4.4 per cent of EDEK people saying they would support him.

However, the results of the poll couldn’t be considered binding – especially with massive developments in the island’s economy on the way and candidates inevitably having to take a stance on proposals made by EU lenders, the troika.

And according to another interesting finding in the poll – which was in Phileleftheros on Sunday – not all participants are completely sure about who they will eventually vote for.

Of those who said they would definitely not be changing their minds, 50.3 per cent were in favour of Anastasiades; 29.3 per cent Malas and 13.8 per cent Lillikas.

But 42.9 per cent of those who said they would vote Anastasiades said they may change their mind, as did 18.8 per cent of Malas supporters and 18.8 per cent of those who favoured Lillikas.

People over the age of 18 from all over the island – rural and urban – participated in the poll, via telephone interviews, between September 7 and 13.

Meanwhile, echoing the varying opinions in DIKO, the party’s vice president – Nicolas Papadopoulos – did little to silence rumours of an internal rift, after claiming in an interview that his failure to turn up to crunch meetings with DISY over the past few weeks was “a conscious political” decision.

Papadopoulos is openly against a partnership with DISY and has voiced his support for Lillikas instead.

“My absence from these meetings was a conscious political act, which I will first explain to the (DIKO) central committee and then the public,” said Papadopoulos.

Asked if he agreed with reports that certain DIKO people felt the party was better off politically affiliated to Lillikas than Anastasiades, Papadopoulos said: “This is correct. In fact, Mr Lillikas is closer to DIKO regarding his views on the Cyprus problem.” The party will decide who to back after a central committee vote on September 27.

http://www.cyprus-mail.com/cyprus/anastasiades-leads-first-polls/20120918